Is This Modi’s “Achievement Project”? The Figures Surpassing the U.S. Are Essentially Meaningless

When discussing transportation in India, most people might first think of overcrowded trains. However, there is a set of data that might be surprising: by the end of 2023, 18 cities in India will have operational metro/light rail systems with a combined length of 905 kilometers. Additionally, in cities like Kanpur, Surat, and Ahmedabad, nearly 1,000 kilometers of metro/light rail projects are under construction. Currently, India adds nearly 6 kilometers of new tracks each month. According to official claims, India’s metro network is set to surpass that of the United States and become the second-largest metro network in the world.

The planning for India’s metro system dates back to 1919, when the British colonial authorities introduced the Kolkata metro project, promising a first phase to be operational by 1925. However, due to India’s economic challenges at the time, the project did not progress. It wasn’t until the 1980s that the first metro line, Kolkata Metro Phase 1, was completed. The Delhi Metro began construction in 1998, with its first phase becoming operational in 2002. Thus, India’s metro development began relatively late.

A significant change occurred after Narendra Modi took office. Since becoming Prime Minister in 2014, Modi has committed to transforming India into a manufacturing powerhouse, with massive metro construction being a key part of improving India’s lagging infrastructure. At that time, India’s metro network covered only 229 kilometers across five cities. Under Modi’s administration, the network has rapidly expanded to nearly 900 kilometers.

Delhi boasts the longest metro network, with 11 lines, 285 stations, and a total length of 391 kilometers, making it the largest metro system in India. Besides Delhi, cities like Mumbai, Bangalore, and Kolkata, as well as numerous smaller cities, are also heavily investing in metro development. The Indian government has set an ambitious target: by 2047, the 100th anniversary of Indian independence, to have metro systems in 100 cities and to expand the national rail network to over 5,000 kilometers.

Metro systems are often regarded as a key indicator of a country’s and city’s development. However, despite significant investment in metro infrastructure, India faces a notable challenge: low passenger volumes. Official data reveals that metro and light rail systems in major Indian cities are operating at only 30% of their projected ridership, with Delhi Metro Rail Corporation (DMRC) being the most efficient, barely reaching 47.45% of its expected traffic. In Bengaluru, notorious for its traffic congestion, the actual ridership on Line 1 is just 6% of the anticipated figure. For context, Delhi Metro’s daily ridership is about 2.76 million. In comparison, Beijing’s metro network had a daily ridership of 9.43 million in 2023, making Delhi’s system comparable to a second-tier Chinese city.

Why Is There Such Low Ridership in India?

  1. Short Commuting Distances: In most Indian cities, 75% of the population commutes less than 10 kilometers. Metro systems are typically designed for longer commutes within cities and connections between suburbs and urban centers. As a result, many Indians may find the metro unnecessary for their shorter commutes.
  2. High Ticket Prices: Metro fares in India have increased significantly in recent years. Ticket prices have risen from 8-28 rupees to 10-60 rupees, with an average fare increase of 91%. In comparison, the average daily minimum wage in India was 178 rupees in 2022, roughly equivalent to 15 RMB.

These factors contribute to a disconnect between the scale of metro infrastructure and actual usage, highlighting challenges in making metro systems practical and affordable for the average commuter.

India’s metro systems, while growing rapidly, face significant challenges in terms of passenger ridership. According to data from India’s Labor Bureau, the average monthly wage in January 2023 was 33,142 rupees, roughly equivalent to over 3,000 Hong Kong dollars. Given this wage level, metro ticket prices represent a substantial proportion of an average worker’s income. This disparity in cost, coupled with the availability of cheaper transportation alternatives such as walking or cycling, has considerably dampened the demand for metro services.

Moreover, fare increases have had a tangible impact on ridership. For instance, after Delhi Metro raised its fares in 2017, passenger numbers fell by 15%. Research reports highlight that for low- and middle-income workers in India, commuting primarily by metro can consume up to 19% of their monthly income. In some cities, the percentage is even higher: in Delhi, it can take up 22% of a manual laborer’s monthly earnings, while in Mumbai it reaches 24%, and in Hyderabad, it can be as high as 33%.

A 2023 article in The Economist suggests that many Indian cities may not be suitable for metro construction at present. The reality of metro operations in India corroborates this view, with many metro systems operating at a loss. A report from the Indian Institute of Management bluntly states that, “like Indian Railways, every metro system in India is financially unviable.”

In summary, despite the ambitious expansion of metro networks, high operational costs and low passenger volumes reveal the difficulties India faces in making these systems both practical and financially sustainable.

According to the Economic Times of India, the Delhi Metro incurs daily losses of around 93 million rupees. This figure is significant given that Delhi Metro is the most commercially advanced and profitable metro system in India. The financial situation of metro systems in other Indian cities is expected to be even more dire.

In India, the metro expansion is often seen as part of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “achievement project.” A notable feature of these metro systems is that 75% of their tracks are elevated or at ground level. For instance, Mumbai’s entire Line 1 is elevated, and Bangalore’s metro is 79% elevated. The preference for elevated construction is largely due to financial constraints, as building elevated tracks is cheaper and less complex compared to underground systems.

This reliance on elevated tracks not only reflects the economic constraints faced by India but also symbolizes the broader challenges within the country’s infrastructure development. The extensive use of elevated tracks in metro construction highlights the gap between ambitious infrastructure projects and the economic realities of their implementation.